Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.052454 0.059582 0.067552 0.077166 0.088505 0.101520 0.117689
2026-01-25 0.041753 0.050574 0.061252 0.075277 0.093430 0.116433 0.148278
2026-02-01 0.033452 0.042728 0.054732 0.071699 0.095552 0.128652 0.179462
2026-02-08 0.028523 0.038275 0.051713 0.072103 0.103219 0.150615 0.231831
2026-02-15 0.024626 0.034559 0.049059 0.072581 0.111449 0.176421 0.301245
2026-02-22 0.021713 0.031772 0.047278 0.074111 0.122091 0.210318 0.401834
2026-03-01 0.019237 0.029242 0.045459 0.075284 0.132839 0.249238 0.536195
2026-03-08 0.016768 0.026332 0.042522 0.073937 0.138884 0.282396 0.682772
2026-03-15 0.014217 0.022907 0.038131 0.068982 0.136492 0.297299 0.797666
2026-03-22 0.012829 0.021280 0.036681 0.069502 0.146332 0.346884 1.063867
2026-03-29 0.011827 0.020193 0.036054 0.071636 0.161001 0.418457 1.495658
2026-04-05 0.010792 0.018895 0.034799 0.072150 0.172175 0.488369 2.034864
2026-04-12 0.009849 0.017665 0.033527 0.072500 0.183814 0.571219 2.819163
2026-04-19 0.008865 0.016220 0.031573 0.070761 0.189103 0.637801 3.696008
2026-04-26 0.007901 0.014696 0.029209 0.067451 0.188526 0.683134 4.590186
2026-05-03 0.007313 0.013877 0.028299 0.067833 0.200697 0.798714 6.587010
2026-05-10 0.006798 0.013146 0.027475 0.068284 0.213746 0.936369 9.667745
2026-05-17 0.006393 0.012603 0.027012 0.069709 0.231669 1.127938 15.206935
2026-05-24 0.006013 0.012066 0.026476 0.070802 0.249315 1.349390 24.341565
2026-05-31 0.005564 0.011318 0.025293 0.069556 0.256531 1.515437 35.504737
2026-06-07 0.005018 0.010289 0.023237 0.064957 0.246239 1.534052 42.564836
2026-06-14 0.004738 0.009858 0.022706 0.065443 0.261318 1.805193 71.391137
2026-06-21 0.004540 0.009599 0.022601 0.067427 0.285855 2.234356 142.261865